Abstract

Yasmin R. Mohamed
Forecasting container throughput in the Hamburg - Le Havre range : Combining ARDL model and scenario analysis
The aim of this study is to develop a model which can assist stakeholders involved in the ports' infrastructure investment decisions. Thus, the study focuses on modelling and forecasting the container throughput. However, the dynamic and unstable nature of the relationship between the seaborne trade and the macroeconomic trends is a challenge. To overcome this complexity, a three-step approach is conducted combining the autoregressive distributed lag model and scenario analysis. Applying this approach, reveals evidence of a long-run relationship between container throughput and the EU trade indices for the Hamburg - Le Havre range.